This Saturday, 26 October, will be one of the most important elections in Queensland’s modern political history.
For the Miles Labor Government, it’s a bid for a fourth term after a decade in power – a feat that has only been achieved a handful of times in Queensland’s political history.
For the Liberal National Party (LNP), led by David Crisafulli, this election represents a chance to break their lengthy stay on the opposition benches. The LNP has only won one election in Queensland since the 1990s, having lost 11 of the last 12 general elections.
Polling over the past year has consistently indicated a desire for change in Queensland. Last year, state polls placed the LNP in the mid-50s on a two-party preferred basis, and this trend has continued. The latest YouGov poll from the weekend shows the LNP maintaining this lead with 55% to 45% on a two-party preferred basis.
Elections are often won or lost over the course of a government’s term, particularly in the crucial first few years. A government must perform well during this period, as leadership changes rarely result in electoral success. Historical examples, such as the NSW Coalition government’s shift from Berejiklian to Perrottet and Victoria’s Labor transition from Bracks to Brumby, show that these changes generally don’t secure re-election. The Palaszczuk-to-Miles transition is likely to follow the same pattern.
While Steven Miles’s $1.4 billion school lunches policy and uncertainty around the LNP’s position on abortion have slightly reduced support for the conservatives, it’s unlikely to alter the overall result. An average 7.7% swing against Labor since the 2020 election could see the government lose around 19 seats, well above the 12 seats the LNP needs to win to form a majority government.
We must remember Queensland’s voting habits though – when Queensland swings, it tends to do so late and with significant impact. Newman’s landslide victory in 2012 caught even LNP strategists off guard just days before the election, whilst Abbott’s 2013 win surprised many. In 2019, predictions of a Labor victory in Queensland evaporated in the last few days, culminating in Scott Morrison’s “miracle” victory.
| It appears that the electorate made up its mind long ago about who they’re going to vote for this weekend. Announcements from the Miles Labor Government such as energy rebates, discounted public transport and other initiatives have failed to significantly shift public sentiment. While these policies are popular, especially the 50 cent public transport initiatives, they may have strengthened Labor’s position against the Greens rather than attracting those undecided voters they need to arrest the swing against them.
Labor’s efforts to target Crisafulli over his stance on abortion and Miles’s appeal to younger voters have been somewhat successful, with 53% of young voters preferring Miles in the latest YouGov poll. However, older voters, who were crucial to Labor’s success in 2020, have largely swung back to the LNP, with 56% of those aged 65 and over preferring Crisafulli. This shift puts several key Labor-held seats at risk. The LNP’s campaign has encountered challenges, particularly with issues like a possible conscience vote on abortion. Crisafulli has stated that the issue is “not part of our plan,” but has been vague on how the party would handle it if a private members bill was introduced to the house. This uncertainty may cost the LNP in some inner-city seats, allowing Labor to hold onto seats they might have otherwise lost. Despite these hurdles, the LNP’s “small target” strategy seems to be paying off, and the party appears poised for victory. However, if Crisafulli wins, he will need to build a stronger connection with Queensland voters to ensure the LNP can be trusted to implement their election promises. |
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As Queensland prepares to vote this weekend, it looks like it’s the LNP’s election to lose. A victory is within reach for the LNP after nearly a decade in opposition, but the long-term success of a Crisafulli-led government will depend on how quickly they can transition from opposition to a government that makes a meaningful impact on Queensland’s future.
A new government will need to move quickly to address the big issues that are troubling Queenslanders. poll shows that Queenslanders want their next elected Premier to focus on combating the rising cost of living (48%) ahead of crime (28%), housing affordability (13%) and public health infrastructure (8%). Queenslanders want change and expect the new government to deliver it – failure to do so will have electoral consequences.
Reach out to our Queensland team if you would like to discuss the outcome of Saturday’s election and what it means for you.
Jamin Smith, Partner and Brisbane Office Head | [email protected]
Max Dudley, Account Director | [email protected]
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